In 1996 the Peace and Neutrality Alliance was established to advocate that Ireland should have its own independent foreign policy, and that neutrality should be a key component, of this policy, which should be pursued primarily through a reformed United Nations and the OSCE.

The reason we did so was because we believed that the Irish political/media elite intended to destroy Irish independence, democracy and neutrality and to integrate Ireland into the EU/US/NATO/Israeli military-industrial structures to ensure Ireland full and active participation in the resource wars of the 21st century; wars in which the defeat of the axis was the only and absolutely inevitable outcome.

We campaigned against the steady process of the growing militarisation of the EU via the Amsterdam, Nice and Lisbon Treaties, and the termination of policy of Irish neutrality by the decision to turn Shannon Airport into a de facto US air force base in March 2003.

PANA has been a small organisation, focused on research and seeking to build unity among all the groups opposed to this process, rather than building an individual based membership organisation. Therefore in November 2004 PANA organised a conference that brought together groups involved in opposing the neo-liberal agenda and the erosion of national democracy as well as those in favour of Irish neutrality and opposed to militarism, out of which grew the Campaign Against the EU Constitution-Say No to Lisbon Alliance.

Apart from having over 30 Irish groups affiliated to PANA we had also built up international links, in particular, with British CND, the Bertrand Russell Foundation and the Transnational Institute which had a similar analysis, as our campaign only makes sense if it is part of the larger international struggle against militarism and war.

During the campaigns on the 1st and 2nd referendums on the Lisbon Treaty we were able to not only build up a stronger broad alliance in Ireland but also international links with Die Linke in Germany, the Dutch Socialist Party and the Left Party in France. We also established our first tentative links with progressive forces in the US via Foreign Policy in Focus.

In both referendums the no side consisted of three groups, Coir, Libertas and CAECU. Coir and Libertas never mentioned war and militarism. Only CAECU made it part of its campaign against the treaty, despite the fact that the TSN/MRBI polls in May and June 2008 showed that concern over neutrality and militarism was a key issue in the decision of the Irish people to reject the treaty in 2008.

The no vote in 2008 was a great victory for the values of Irish Independence, Democracy and neutrality and a defeat for imperialism. But the elite learnt their lesson and decided immediately after their defeat to force the Irish people to vote again on exactly the same treaty.
All the current affairs programmes from June 08 ensured that those who had played a role in the no campaign were largely excluded from debate; the corporate media provided massive coverage to the yes campaigners, the Forum on Europe that provided the opportunity for equal democratic debate was abolished, and so called “civil society” yes groups heavily funded by the corporate sector were established. Major corporations like Intel and Ryanair spent millions of euro advocating a yes vote. They won. It was a victory for imperialism. Our vision of a Partnership Europe, a Partnership of independent democratic states, legal equals, without a military dimension was rejected in favour of a centralised militarised neo-liberal Superstate.

 But it was a pyrrhic victory. The EU elite were forced to ram through their new EU Constitution/Lisbon Treaty without holding referendums in any EU state except Ireland. Their appointment of an unknown British Baroness as EU Foreign Minister was a real indication that it was a victory that had exhausted them.

The imperialist forces in Ireland, the bankers, the major corporations and their corporate media, the vast majority of the trade union leaders, the leadership of Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, the Green Party and the Labour Party do not believe that they have suddenly converted the people who voted no in 2008 into active supporters of their emerging militarised, neo-liberal and centralised Superstate.

They know the reason, indeed the only reason, why people changed their mind was fear, a fear that grew out of the massive crisis caused by the values of the militarist, neo-liberal capitalist system which this elite have supported for decades and which were an integral part of the Lisbon Treaty. The elite was successful in convincing the people that bad as it was it would be even worse unless they reversed their decision. The 54% no vote in 2008 however, is far more reflective of the real level of resistance to their project than the 33% that voted no this year. The 2008 vote is the expression of popular vote that is achievable  by the progressive political forces, especially if those political forces brought together in CAEUC consolidated  into a political alliance.

Because that fear that turned 54% into 33% could turn into hate as the elite bail out their bankers and the rich via NAMA, impose massive cuts in the living conditions of the people and refuse point blank to introduce a wealth tax and a graduated income tax system which would ensure they, the rich and powerful, that did very well out of the so called Celtic Tiger would pay for the economic crisis for which they are responsible.

 The people are now turning to Fine Gael and Labour because they are seen as the opposition, as no progressive alliance is being created. But it will not take long for the people to discover that FG & Labour support exactly the same imperialist values as Fianna Fail. In that context the demand for such a progressive alliance will become unstoppable and a key part of that process will be the growth in anti-imperialist values by ordinary members of the trade unions.

The existing trade union leaders are already being forced by their own members to take a more aggressive attitude to defend wages and working conditions. But most of these leaders have become an integral part of the ruling elite and they want to remain part of it. They did all they could, including advocating a deal to their members that ensures the existing class structure and the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of the elite remains unchanged.

But even if they had achieved such a local deal, they would not succeeded because the imperialist values that they endorse are only a reflection of values that are centred in the United States that leads this US/EU/NATO/Israeli axis, and it is about to disintegrate. The crisis in Dubai is only the latest example of this process.

The global leader of this US/EU/NATO/Israeli axis, President Obama, has made it clear he will escalate these wars by sending thousands of more US troops to Afghanistan. It will be a decision that will mean the destruction of the American Empire and its vassal states including the Republic of Ireland will not be immune from the consequences.

In response to these developments PANA needs to accelerate and deepen the strategies we have developed over the years for while PANA did all it could to build unity between all the groups opposed to imperialism, the result showed we were just not strong enough to win a second time against a very determined enemy.

We need to seek to establish PANA groups in every Dail and Northern Ireland Assembly constituency. The main purpose of these groups would be to do locally what PANA has sought to do on a national level. That is, contact local groups, such as the local trade union councils and other civil society groups and seek to ensure they affiliate to, or at least work with PANA. They can contact the local groups of the organisations affiliated to PANA nationally as well as those affiliated to CAECU.

We helped to establish CAECU to build links between the issues of war, neo-liberalism and democracy and the fact that it has agreed to continue is a very progressive development. It has the potential to build a stronger and broader national alliance. Whether they do so, does not depend on PANA, it depends on the willingness of the political parties that led the campaign to learn from the experience of victory, the experience that only through unity can we actually win.

We need to continue the process of building links with groups throughout the world,
in particular with those in the other EU states and the US.

None of these developments can take place without the support of the existing affiliates.

As part of this process PANA should plan out its activities for 2010 with a focus on the following events:

1. A demonstration at the end of February outside ACRA Controls Ltd that makes component parts of the military drones used in Afghanistan and Pakistan. We hope to do so in conjunction with the IAWM and other progressive groups.

2. Organise a meeting of shannonwatch.org in March as part of the IAWM events.

3. Hold a conference on An Independent Irish Policy in September in Dublin by seeking to bring together all the international solidarity groups.

4. To begin the planning of another International Peace Conference in Shannon in 2011.

5. Hold at least one major demonstration at Shannon Airport, including an international “fly-in”.

The overwhelming reality is that the neo-liberalist militarist ideology that has dominated the world for the last 40 years is facing a massive crisis. The US budget deficit is now $1.4 trillion, 10% of its GDP. The US national debt as a % of its GDP has risen from 58% in the year 2000 to a projected 98% in 2010 and a massive 148% in 2018.  This debt does not include the debts of its individual states nor the US states guarantee’s to its failed banking system. Since China and Japan own over 20% each of that debt via their ownership of US treasury holdings they are unlikely to buy more and if anything they will sell dollars to ensure a more balanced portfolio.

It is also having problems finding recruits despite rising unemployment. The US Army Times newspaper recently published an article stating that 33% of all US males between 17-24 are unqualified for military service because they are too fat. Which is another reason why it has to spend massive amounts of money on hiring mercenaries in firms like Blackwater.

 In short, the US just cannot and will not be able to sustain its spending of 21% of its annual tax take on its military, especially when this figure does not include expenditure on nuclear weapons which are under the Dept. of Energy budget, and grants to foreign states which is under the control of the State Dept. The US Empire will self destruct as a consequence of the Bush-Obama wars, and if there is a massive run on the dollar, which could happen at any moment, then its destruction will be sudden and swift, as happened with the Soviet Union, which also militarily overextended itself. The figures speak for themselves. The US is spending $11 million an hour on the Afghan war alone. The $100 billion it sends in a year could provide all  people in the 21 poorest countries in the world with clean water, primary education and healthcare.

 PANA in advocating a rejection of the Bush/Obama militarist neo-liberal agenda is simply surfing the tide of history as they drive their Empire to its destruction. The consequence for those states that have decided to ally themselves with the US; for example, there are 35,000 troops from EU states including 7 from Ireland already in Afghanistan and they plan to increase that number by at least 5,000, will be equally disastrous.

Finally, in a few years time in 2016, PANA will be marking its 20th anniversary. These next few years have the potential to see not just a defeat of the neo-liberal militarist values in Ireland and the creation of a government committed to the values of independence, democracy and neutrality, but similar transformations in the political structure throughout Europe and the US.

In Ireland, that means continuing our campaign to terminate the use of Shannon Airport as a de facto military airforce base by the US and its allies and to eliminate the military provisions of the European Union. These are practical and achievable objectives.

For some that is far fetched, but the Soviet Union collapsed because of its commitment to imperial war in Afghanistan and very few predicted its demise. Can there be any real doubt that the commitment to imperial war by the US/EU/NATO/Israeli axis in Iraq, Afghanistan/Iran/Palestine and Pakistan will led to an even greater collapse of the dominant neo-liberal militarist ideology?

 PANA and CAECU should play a role in that process. We should seek to ensure that the alternative that will develop out of its collapse is based on democratic values, as there is no guarantee that this will be the case. We have to continually work in building a network of contacts with other genuine civil society groups and those individuals in all the existing mainstream parties that have a commitment to democracy.

The absolute reality is clear. As the global crisis deeps it is only the agenda of the peace movement that can ensure stability and survival.  The slogan of the peace movement; Protest and Survive, is more valid now than it ever was.

Roger Cole
Chair
Peace & Neutrality Alliance
www.pana.ie
PANA AGM 5/12/09